Essay · World Order · India's Decade
The World We Are Making Without Knowing It
You are living through the roughest patch of a global reordering. You sense it — in your electricity bill, in the skill you just had to learn, in the future you are trying to build for your child. Here is what is actually happening, and why India is at the centre of it.
You did not vote for any of this. Nobody asked you whether the global order should be rearranged. And yet here you are — navigating a job market that keeps shifting the rules, paying more for things that used to cost less, wondering whether the skill you spent two years acquiring is already being made redundant by a machine. Something large is in motion. You can feel it even if you cannot name it.
What you are feeling is not anxiety about your personal circumstances. You are feeling the friction of a world that is changing its operating system — and doing so badly, visibly, and without a clear upgrade path. This decade, the 2020s, is the rough patch. The decade after it, the 2030s, will determine whether what comes next is worth the disruption.
Let us name the thing honestly, without the jargon that usually makes these conversations feel remote.
When the Policeman Stops Showing Up
For roughly seventy years, the world ran on a simple bargain: America kept the seas open, the trade routes safe, and the worst instincts of powerful states in check. In return, everyone accepted American leadership — and, often enough, American double standards. It was imperfect. But it was functional.
That bargain is fraying. Not because America became weak, but because it stopped believing the bargain was worth its cost. The result is what happens when the policeman stops showing up: not immediate chaos, but a slow unpicking of the habits that kept things ordered. Old certainties — about who protects whom, who trades with whom on what terms, which rules apply to which nations — are all being renegotiated simultaneously.
Into this space, three things are happening at once. China is pushing outward, filling gaps the retreating American presence leaves behind. A cluster of middle powers — India, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey, the Gulf states — are refusing to be corralled into anyone's camp. And technology, moving faster than any government can regulate, is rewriting what power actually means.
The question is not whether the old order survives. It will not survive intact. The question is whether what replaces it is governed — or merely experienced.
What 2040 Looks Like, Depending on Choices Made Now
By 2040, the person reading this will be in a different chapter of life. The child you are educating will be deciding their first career moves. The skills you are building now will either have compounded or become obsolete. What the world looks like then depends on four possible directions this decade takes — and most likely, a combination of all four.
The first is a more authoritarian world — one where the disorder of this decade convinces enough governments that control is preferable to freedom, and where surveillance technology makes that control cheaper than it has ever been. This is not a dystopian fantasy. It is the direction of travel in roughly half the countries on earth right now.
The second is a more fractured world — where trade, technology, and even the internet split into rival ecosystems. Where the supply chain for your phone and the data on your phone both depend on which geopolitical bloc your country belongs to. Where cross-border cooperation on the things that require it — pandemics, climate, financial stability — becomes harder with every passing year.
The third is a more technology-controlled world — not controlled by governments, but by platforms and algorithms that shape what people see, believe, and therefore choose. A world where the decisive power is not military or economic, but informational. Where the entity that controls the model controls the mind.
The fourth — the one worth fighting for — is a more cooperative world. Not utopian, not uniform. But one where enough of the rules and institutions survive, reformed and expanded, to keep the worst outcomes off the table. Where countries that disagree on many things still show up to manage the things that kill everyone regardless of politics — the climate, the next virus, the financial system.
The honest answer is that 2040 will be a mixture. The question is the proportion. And that proportion is being decided right now, in decisions that look mundane but are not.
The Climate Bill No One Is Reading Honestly
Here is a number that rarely makes the front page of the climate conversation: the average Indian emits approximately 2 tonnes of carbon dioxide a year. The average American emits about 14. The average European, around 7. The atmosphere, unfortunately, does not take nationality into account when it absorbs heat. But morality and policy must.
When the world's rich nations — who built their prosperity over a century of burning coal, oil, and gas without restriction — tell developing economies to decarbonize faster than their people can afford, they are presenting a bill they did not accumulate. They are asking the late arrivals to the party to clean up a mess made by those who got there first and ate everything on the table.
This is not an argument against the energy transition. The transition is necessary — the physics is non-negotiable. But the terms of the transition matter enormously for the person who just got access to reliable electricity, or who needs affordable fuel to run a small business, or whose country is being told it cannot build the industrial base that created prosperity everywhere else.
India's position is the most articulate of any large economy: we will transition, faster than our historical emissions would require us to, but we will not be punished for a debt we did not incur. The solar panels going up across Indian rooftops and the wind farms being built along Indian coasts are not concessions to Western pressure — they are economic decisions that happen to align with climate goals. That alignment is the real opportunity. When clean energy is the cheapest energy, the transition accelerates without coercion.
The Numbers Behind the Argument
India accounts for roughly 17% of the world's population but only 4% of historical cumulative carbon emissions. The United States, with 4% of the population, accounts for roughly 25% of historical emissions.
India is now the world's third largest producer of renewable energy. Solar capacity has grown more than tenfold in a decade. The target is 500 gigawatts of non-fossil capacity by 2030.
The green hydrogen and clean energy technology partnerships being built with Germany, Norway, and the EU in 2025–26 are designed to ensure that the next industrial wave runs on clean rails from the start — not retrofitted at enormous cost.
Why the Future Is Being Made in Groups of Five, Not Fifty
The United Nations was built for a world of nation-states that needed one place to talk. It still matters — its foundational rules against conquest and its humanitarian frameworks protect people who would otherwise have no protection at all. These must be defended without apology.
But the UN cannot move at the speed that the problems require. Its Security Council still carries the veto structure of 1945, designed for a world that no longer exists. Its climate negotiations produce documents that commit everyone and bind no one sufficiently. It is the architecture of a previous century trying to manage the crises of this one.
So the real work is increasingly happening in smaller rooms: groups of four, five, or seven countries assembled around a specific problem and with the mutual interest and trust to actually solve it. Think of these as task forces standing up within a larger company — the company still exists, sets the overall norms, provides the legal framework. But execution happens in the team meeting, not the all-hands.
India sits in more of these small rooms than any other country of its kind. It is in the Quad — the strategic maritime partnership with the United States, Japan, and Australia, focused on a free and open Indo-Pacific. It is in BRICS, representing the collective voice of the Global South. It is in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. It is now a central partner of the European Union through the landmark Free Trade Agreement signed in January 2026 — the largest ever concluded by either party. It is in the I2U2 group on food and energy security.
No other democracy of India's scale sits simultaneously at so many different tables. This is not indecision. It is the most sophisticated possible response to a fractured world: be indispensable to every major coalition without being captive to any single one.
How India Makes the World Work at Price Points It Can Afford
There is a missile called BrahMos. It is a joint venture between India and Russia — one of the fastest cruise missiles in the world, capable of striking a naval vessel from 290 kilometres away with no known interception system capable of stopping it. It was built through an Indo-Russian partnership that the West watches nervously, as it watches all of India's relationships with Moscow.
And yet: the BrahMos is now deployed by the Philippines, pointed directly at Chinese naval vessels encroaching on Filipino waters in the South China Sea — waters that China has claimed, illegally under international law, as its own. The Philippines acquired three batteries from India in 2022. They are stationed on the western coast of Luzon, facing the very flashpoints where Chinese and Filipino vessels have clashed repeatedly. American military forces train at those same sites. American strategic interests are directly served by those missiles.
Russian technology. Indian engineering and pricing. Philippine deployment. American strategic benefit. China — Russia's closest partner — is what it deters.
This is not a contradiction. This is India's specific contribution to global stability: the ability to route capability through relationships that Western binary thinking cannot navigate, and deliver it to smaller democracies that need it, at price points they can actually afford. The West could not have sold this missile to the Philippines for the same price, through the same trust architecture, with the same speed of delivery. Only India could.
The West worries that India might "leak" — that its Russian relationships, its BRICS membership, its strategic autonomy might allow sensitive technology or intelligence to flow toward adversaries. The operational record tells a different story. India routes capability and relationships in one direction only: toward the stability of a world where smaller states can defend themselves, where trade routes remain open, and where the use of force to rewrite borders is resisted. Every time.
India makes the liberal order affordable. Without India's price point, the West's values are a luxury product. With it, they become infrastructure.
The Payment Rail That Half the World Now Uses
Consider what it took, fifteen years ago, for a street vendor in a small Indian town to receive a digital payment. It required a bank account, a card terminal, a merchant agreement with a financial institution, and a customer with a credit card. Almost none of those conditions existed. Cash was the only option, which meant no record, no credit history, no access to formal financial services, no ability to grow.
India built a system called UPI — a payment rail that works on a basic smartphone, requires no credit card, connects 700 banks, and processes over 20 billion transactions every single month. Nearly half of all real-time digital payments on earth now flow through this system. A vegetable seller, a freelance designer, a college student paying rent — all on the same rails, at zero transaction cost.
The reason this matters beyond India is that this architecture is being offered to the world — not sold, not licensed at extractive IP rates, but shared as open infrastructure. Fifty countries are currently exploring adoption of elements of India's digital public system. The principle is deliberate: if the digital economy is going to be where most of human commerce and social life happens, then access to it cannot be a luxury. The infrastructure must be public, interoperable, and affordable.
This is what Western technology platforms, for all their innovation, cannot do alone. They were built for markets with credit infrastructure, legal systems for digital contracts, and consumers with the income to pay subscription fees. For the five billion people outside that charmed circle, Western platforms arrive as luxury goods — remarkable, but not foundational.
India's DPI — its stack of digital identity, payments, health records, and commerce rails — is the translation layer. It takes the innovation of the more developed world and makes it operable at the price point and complexity level of the less developed one. This is not charity. It is architecture. And it is the most important non-military contribution any country is currently making to a stable and inclusive global order.
What All of This Means for the Person Trying to Make Ends Meet
Return now to where we began: the person who did not vote for any of this but is living through all of it. The one upskilling at night after the children are asleep. The one trying to figure out which version of the future their child's education should be preparing for.
Here is what the macro translates to at human scale.
The disruption you feel in your profession — the sense that the job you were trained for is shifting beneath you — is real, and it is not going to stabilise quickly. Artificial intelligence will automate the parts of work that are routine, sequential, and pattern-based. It will not, for a long time, automate judgment, empathy, physical dexterity in unstructured environments, or the ability to read a room and respond to what is unspoken. The honest advice to yourself and your child is: build toward the second category, not the first. Not because the first is unimportant — but because the machines will do it cheaper, and arguing with that arithmetic is futile.
The energy costs you are navigating — the volatility in petrol prices, the electricity tariffs that seem to move in one direction — are the price of a transition that is genuinely necessary but being managed with less fairness than it should be. India's argument on per-capita emissions is not just diplomacy. It is a claim on behalf of every citizen of a developing economy who is being asked to pay, through higher costs and constrained industrial growth, for a crisis they did not create. That argument, made loudly and persistently, is one of the things that will shape whether the energy transition arrives as shared responsibility or imposed burden.
The geopolitical noise — Trump's tariffs, Asim Munir's White House lunch, the West Asia conflict consuming Gulf investment flows — these are not background weather. They affect the remittances that feed families in Kerala and Tamil Nadu. They affect which export sector you might build a career around. They affect whether the infrastructure project in your city gets funded through which corridor of global capital. The macro is intimate. It just arrives without a label.
You are not unaware of the macro. You are living it — in the bill, the job listing, the question of which language your child should learn next, the school fee that went up again.
Why This Decade Is the Rough Patch, Not the End of the Road
History is not linear. It does not move smoothly from worse to better. It moves in periods of consolidation followed by periods of disruption, during which the new order is assembled — messily, painfully, with no guarantee of improvement — from the ruins of the old one.
We are in such a period now. The rules that governed the previous order are being contested. The institutions are straining. The technology is moving faster than governance. The climate bill is coming due. And several of the most powerful actors on the global stage are behaving with a recklessness that would, in a private person, be called irresponsible.
And yet: the EU and India just concluded the largest free trade agreement in history, creating a free trade zone of two billion people. Nordic sovereign wealth funds are flowing into Indian infrastructure. BrahMos batteries are protecting a smaller democracy from a naval hegemon. UPI is processing the financial lives of hundreds of millions who had no access to formal finance a decade ago. Germany and India are co-developing defence technology. Norway is supplying clean energy partnerships. A "50-in-5" coalition is building digital public infrastructure for fifty countries in five years.
These are not the actions of a world collapsing. They are the actions of a world restructuring — imperfectly, unevenly, with considerable pain in the transition — toward something that has the potential to be more genuinely multipolar, more honestly multilateral, and more equitably distributed than what came before.
The rough patch is this decade. The buildup is the next one. Whether we look back from 2040 at a more authoritarian, more fractured world, or at one that found — improbably, in the midst of the noise — a more durable architecture for human cooperation, depends on choices being made right now.
Many of them by people who are simply trying to make ends meet, educate their children, and keep faith with the future. People like you. People like the street vendor on UPI. The Filipino marine operating a missile she was trained by Indian experts to use. The engineer learning a new language at night because the job market has moved again.
History does not happen to us. We are, without quite knowing it, always making it.
The world that emerges in 2040 will carry the fingerprints of everyone who refused to stop trying — who upskilled when the market shifted, who educated the next generation for a future they could not fully see, who kept faith with the idea that the rules should apply to everyone or to no one. That refusal is not small. In a period of disorder, it is the most consequential act available to most of us.